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Estimation of parameters (date and magnitude) of two strong earthquakes in Iran by integrating different earthquake precursors
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Mohammad Mahdi Khoshgoftar *   , Mohammad Reza Saradjian |
| University of Tehran |
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Abstract: (2202 Views) |
| Natural hazards cause thousands of deaths and millions of dollars of financial losses all around the world every year. Earthquake is one of the natural hazards that receives special attention, because it usually occurs with very few or no warnings. Earthquake precursors can be used as an alarm for impending earthquakes. As a single precursor is not able to accurately predict an earthquake, it is necessary to integrate different types of precursors. In this paper, the precursors of total electron content (TEC), land surface temperature (LST), aerosol optical depth (AOD) and surface latent heat flux (SLHF) for two severe earthquakes in Kermanshah and Bam have been studied and analyzed. The median and interquartile are used to detect the anomaly. When an earthquake-related disturbance is detected, based on the type of precursor, the number of the days relative to the earthquake date is estimated. Then, according to the amount of deviation of the precursor from the normal state, the magnitude of the impending earthquake is estimated. In order to evaluate the final parameters (date and magnitude) of the earthquake for each region, the method of mean square error (MSE) has been used. The date and magnitude of the earthquake were estimated for each precursor in Kermanshah and Bam earthquakes. By combining the earthquake parameters obtained from all precursors, the final earthquake parameters were estimated for these two earthquakes, in which according to the obtained results, the estimated date and magnitude of the impending earthquakes almost corresponded with the recorded date and magnitude of the earthquakes. According to the obtained results, it can be concluded that increasing the number and variety of the earthquake precursors can lead to the accurate estimation of the earthquake parameters. |
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| Keywords: Remote sensing, Earthquake, Precursor, Time series. |
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Full-Text [PDF 1450 kb]
(623 Downloads)
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Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
RS
Received: 2021/05/31 | Accepted: 2021/09/13 | Published: 2021/10/22
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