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:: دوره 7، شماره 3 - ( 9-1398 ) ::
جلد 7 شماره 3 صفحات 135-115 برگشت به فهرست نسخه ها
توسعه مدل پیش بینی گسترش فیزیکی شهر بابل مبتنی بر مفهوم درجه ریسک تصمیم‌گیری مکانی چندمعیاره
محمد کریمی فیروزجائی ، امیر صدیقی ، محمدرضا جلوخانی نیارکی*
دانشگاه تهران
چکیده:   (2724 مشاهده)
امروزه بررسی روند مکانی-زمانی گسترش فیزیکی شهرها و شناسایی پارامترهای موثر بر آن نقش کلیدی را در فرایند تصمیم­گیری­ها و برنامه­ریزی­های بلند مدت شهری ایفا می­کنند. بنابراین، بکارگیری روش­های دقیق و کارآمد برای پیش­بینی گسترش فیزیکی شهرها از اهمیت بالایی برخوردار است. هدف از این پژوهش، ارائه یک مدل مفهومی جدید برای پیاده­سازی سیستم پیش­بینی گسترش فیزیکی شهر برمبنای درجه ریسک در تصمیم­گیری مکانی چند معیاره می­باشد. این مدل برای پیش­بینی گسترش فیزیکی شهر بابل پیاده­سازی شده است. در مدل پیشنهادی از تلفیق روش وزن­دهی ذهنی و عینی به صورت سراسری و محلی، برای تعیین اهمیت نسبی معیارهای مختلف و از مدل مارکوف برای تولید ماتریس تبدیل مساحت استفاده شده است. علاوه بر دو پارامتر مقدار معیارها و وزن هر یک از معیارها، پارامتر درجه ریسک در تصمیم­گیری نیز برای تهیه نقشه تناسب گسترش فیزیکی شهر در نظر گرفته شده است. در این مطالعه برای تعیین درجه ریسک و روش­ وزن‌دهی بهینه، هر یک از نقشه­های اراضی ساخته­شده شبیه­سازی شده با نقشه اراضی ساخته­شده واقعی مقایسه شده است. نتایج بیانگر این است که برای منطقه مورد مطالعه در حالت تعیین وزن معیارها با استراتژی محلی و سراسری، مقادیر 3/0 و 7/0 به ترتیب درجات ریسک بهینه در تصمیم­گیری جهت تولید نقشه تناسب می­باشند. همچنین در درجه ریسک بهینه دقت کلی برای روش تعیین وزن سراسری و محلی به ترتیب 5/85 و 2/89 می­باشد. برای شهر بابل نتایج پژوهش حاکی از کارایی بالاتر روش وزن­دهی محلی نسبت به روش وزن­دهی سراسری برای تولید نقشه تناسب می­باشد.
واژه‌های کلیدی: گسترش فیزیکی شهر، مدل شبیه سازی، تصمیم‌گیری مکانی چند معیاره، ریسک.
متن کامل [PDF 2356 kb]   (1079 دریافت)    
نوع مطالعه: پژوهشي | موضوع مقاله: سنجش از دور
دریافت: 1397/5/29 | پذیرش: 1397/9/20 | انتشار: 1398/9/30
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Karimi Firozjaei M, Sedighi A, Jelokhani-Niaraki M. Developing a model for simulating urban expansion based on the concept of decision risk: A case study in Babol city. jgit 2019; 7 (3) :115-135
URL: http://jgit.kntu.ac.ir/article-1-745-fa.html

کریمی فیروزجائی محمد، صدیقی امیر، جلوخانی نیارکی محمدرضا. توسعه مدل پیش بینی گسترش فیزیکی شهر بابل مبتنی بر مفهوم درجه ریسک تصمیم‌گیری مکانی چندمعیاره. مهندسی فناوری اطلاعات مکانی. 1398; 7 (3) :115-135

URL: http://jgit.kntu.ac.ir/article-1-745-fa.html



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